We have been busy working on lots of new projects to better serve our clients this year. One of the latest updates is a brand new blog site. It will still have the archived articles you may have read here, but the new site will be more flexible and won’t have any annoying ads. You can link to the new blog site by clicking the image below.
We hope you will like and subscribe to our new blog. This site will remain active for a few weeks, and then will be shut down. Thank you so much for your support. We hope to see you at our new home https://falkeandgumpblog.com/
The number of new listings dropped 22.2% in the first six months of the year. Desperate buyers and a lack of homes for sale meant that almost every listing received multiple offers. The summer housing market was intense and bidding wars were common place. In July, we received 14 offers within 24 hours on a brick ranch home that we listed in West Carrollton. It was not unusual for us to be reviewing offers via text with agents while talking on the phone with clients as we negotiated the best deal possible. In a word, the first half of 2023 was frenzied.
Why was the number of new listings the lowest we have seen in more than 6 years? Many homeowners were sitting with mortgage rates at 2.5-3.0%. Staying in their existing home made more financial sense than selling since they would need to purchase a property with interest rates over 6%. So unless there was a compelling reason to move, many decided to stay put. The shortage in housing continued to push average sale prices higher even as interest rates were rising. It was a good time to be a seller and a very difficult time to be a buyer.
On average, it took 61 days to sell a property in 2023. Sellers who priced their homes correctly at, or slightly below, market value saw their houses sell quickly, typically with multiple offers over the listing price. Those who tried to price their home too high, were forced to take reductions. Buyers facing higher interest rates and increasing home prices were unwilling to spend more than a property was worth. Their housing dollar was already stretched too thin.
While looking back at the 2023 results for Montgomery, Greene, and Warren Counties tells us a lot about our market, it is difficult to see how much it changed just by looking at the topside numbers and averages.
A Year of Change
In August something interesting happened. For the first time in more than a year, we saw an increase in the number of new listings vs the prior year. That trend continued through the rest of 2023. In October, new listings increased 10.6% and in November by 16.2% vs 2022. (Contrast that to the -29.8% decrease in new listings that buyers faced in the month of April.) All of those new listings in the second half of the year began to drive up the total number of available homes in the market. By the time we reached October, the number of active listings was up 7.6% vs last year. That was the highest inventory jump we have seen in 5 years. By the time we hit December, there were 21% more homes for sale than in 2022. It was definitely a year of contrasts.
The higher inventory levels for the second half of the year helped increase sales, especially in the 4th quarter. While sales still lagged behind 2022 numbers, they were only down 3.3%. That is a huge gain over 3rd quarter when sales fell 17.2% vs last year!
The average sale price of homes continued to rise, but the pace of increase slowed. Prices for the year rose 6.5% which was the lowest year-over-year increase since 2018. In a typical year, sale prices in November and December drop 9-12% from their high in May and June. This year, they only fell 2% in the 4th quarter. It is noteworthy that the highest average sale prices of the year vs 2022 happened in November and December despite the increase in inventory levels.
So what does this mean for 2024?
While we do not have a crystal ball, market experts and our local market trends point to a couple of big changes in real estate this year.
Better inventory levels for buyers
Based on the the last 6 months, there is every reason to believe that inventory levels will continue to ease in 2024. New home construction continues at a brisk pace. Several of our clients built houses in 2023 and we think that trend will continue this year. Now that interest rates have stabilized, existing home inventories should also increase as current owners finally decide to make a change and list their homes for sale.
While it will take some time for the increase in housing to make a big impact, we should see the market shift in the buyer’s favor. We are still a long way from a balanced market, but there will be more houses available for buyers this year.
Lower interest rates
The Fed has signaled that if inflation stays where it is, that they will adjust rates as many as 4 times in 2024. There is a lot that can change, particularly in an election year, but there is optimism looking forward. If rates drop, even a little, we will start to see more homeowners willing to get back into the market even if it means trading in their lower interest rates to do so. Buyers who jumped to the sidelines during the rate hikes of 2023, will also get back into the game if we see lower rates this year. Time will tell if the increase in housing supply will be enough to meet the needs of the additional buyers.
Have you been considering buying or selling this year? 2024 should be a better market for buyers, but housing inventories will still be low. It is important to put together a plan to ensure you can get what you need. Give us a call so we can help you achieve your goals this year.
There is a lot to do as the holiday season kicks off around the Miami Valley. Christmas displays, holiday lights, ice skating, performing arts events, luminary walks, and lots of holiday markets will help you get into the spirit of the season. It’s a great time to gather friends or family and have fun spending time together.
A Holiday Light Scavenger Hunt
A holiday light scavenger hunt is easy to pull together – simply make a list of 10-30 Christmas displays that you and your friends or family can look for as you tour local neighborhoods. You can make it as easy or hard as you’d like. The list should include some obvious Christmas characters like Santa Claus, Rudolf, and the Grinch. You can throw in some hard-to-find items to make it more challenging. This has been a holiday tradition in Karen’s family for more than 13 years. Make your own list (or use ours below as a starting point), pile into your car, turn on some Christmas music, and start the search. You will have a great time as you try to check off all the items on your list.
Holiday Light Displays
As the days grow shorter, holiday lights help bring a little magic to the long winter nights. It is amazing how many light displays are within a short driving distance of Dayton. Some you can view from the warmth of your car and others allow you to walk and see the lights from a closer vantage point. No matter which option you choose, the wonder of all those twinkling lights will put you in the holiday spirit.
We have listed many Christmas light displays below. Drive-thru displays have a blue car icon. For location and admission information, please check online.
Winter Fun in a Metropark
Our area Metroparks are open throughout the winter. You can bundle up, hit the hiking trail and explore some beautiful panoramas. For a link to some great hiking trails, click here. Once the temperatures get a little colder, why not take a hike to a frozen waterfall? Clifton Gorge in Yellow Springs and Patty Falls in Englewood MetroPark are two great options to explore. If you want to travel a bit farther, check out this list of hikes to frozen waterfalls compiled by the State of Ohio.
Are you interested in other winter sports besides hiking? Riverscape MetroPark features the largest outdoor rink in the region. There are also opportunities for cross-country skiing, sledding, or fishing at our area parks. For areas to sled, cross-country ski, or fish, click this link which will give you some spots for winter sports activities. For those just wanting to get out and enjoy some nature, explore more winter adventures by clicking here.
Winter Activities Worth a Short Trip
There are so many fun things to do in the winter around Ohio. If you are looking for a list of holiday festivals and light displays throughout the state, you can explore your options by clicking here. Interested in a weekend getaway this holiday season? This link will provide some ideas for Christmas fun including places to eat, stay and explore throughout the state.
If you’d like to go skiing, snowboarding, or snow tubing, check out Perfect North. They offer beginner classes for first-timers, season passes, and opportunities for group events.
Have we left anything off the list? Let us know about your favorite wintertime activity.
Christmas in Dayton
Are you looking for a more comprehensive list of all the holiday events in the Dayton area? Dayton Local has compiled a great list that includes performing arts events, tree lightings, luminary walks, and holiday bazaars. It is truly amazing how much there is to do.
We hope you have a wonderful holiday season filled with merriment and joy!
Fall is a great time to get outside to enjoy the beautiful foliage. The Miami Valley has a lot of really great hiking trails for both short, easy walks and longer, more strenuous treks. Karen and her husband like to hike every weekend and they have listed some of their favorite spots below.
Bill Yeck Park: With 3 different entry points and 194 acres, this park, located in Washington Twp has something for everyone. Bill Yeck park features more than 8 miles of marked trails. The yellow trail crosses Sugar Creek, which passes right through the park, several times. There is an apiary, a bird blind and many species of rare plants along the trails. This park connects to Forest Field Park with more trails and playground equipment.
Sugarcreek MetroPark: Adjacent to Bill Yeck Park, this MetroPark is much larger, boasting 618 acres of land to explore. Like Bill Yeck, Sugarcreek also features about 8 miles of marked trails but in addition, it also has 8 miles of horse trails. A popular local spot for both hikers & trail runners, this park tends to be a bit more crowded, especially on the weekends. Click here for a trail map.
Twin Creek MetroPark: If you are looking for something a little less crowded than Sugarcreek, try Twin Creek MetroPark. This 1,000 acre park boasts about 20 miles of marked hiking trails and 5.7 miles of horse trails. Many of the hiking trails contain steep climbs and down hill sections, so read the map carefully if you prefer a less strenuous hike. It has 4 entrances, a fishing pond and it’s also a popular spot to kayak. Click here for a trail map.
Germantown MetroPark: Like Twin Creek, Germantown MetroPark also surrounds the Twin Creek corridor. It offers 17 miles of marked hiking trails including the 7.9 perimeter hike (the orange trail on the map). It features the largest sections of old growth forest in Montgomery County. Just a warning though, parts of this trail may be impassable after heavy rains, so schedule your visit with an eye on the weather. Click here for a trail map.
Englewood Metropark: This 1,900 acre park offers lakes, waterfalls, forests, and wetlands along with about 8 miles of marked hiking trails. The park acts as a protector and buffer for the Stillwater river. There is a lot to do here, in addition to hiking you can go boating, fishing, horseback riding or camping. Like Germantown & parts of Twin Creek, trails along the Stillwater River and the lake can be impassable after heavy rains. Click here for a trail map.
Crains Run Nature Park: If you enjoy river views on your hike, this park is a great option for you. This 34 acre park sits on the southernmost part of Miami Township. The paved hiker/biker trail runs along the Great Miami River and is relatively flat. Much of the trail is heavily wooded and we have spotted some bald eagles and their nests along the river banks. This trail is great for all ages and is a mud-free hike if we have had recent rains. This trail also connects to the next one on our list.
Medlar: Another great paved option for hikes is the Medlar Conservation Area in Miami Township. The 2.25 hiker/biker path is part of the Great-Little Trail, an east-west route that starts at the Great Miami River Trail just north of Crains Run Park, runs through the Medlar Conservation Area and then runs along Austin Blvd and Social Row Road toward the Little Miami Scenic Trail to the east.
Looking for more trails? Check out these resources:
We don’t have a crystal ball, but there are some things we can predict for the last few months of this year. While the market continues to cool from the frenzied pace set during the months of May through August, there is still plenty of life left in the market for both buyers and sellers in 2023. We have listed 4 take-aways for the last three months of the year below.
Interest Rates
Interest Rates will likely remain at or above 7% for the near future. While the Fed opted not to raise rates in September, mortgage rates are still on the rise this week. Many experts predict one more rate hike before the year’s end as the Fed works to combat inflation. While these rates are high compared to recent years, they are not high from a historical perspective. If interest rates are the only thing keeping you out of the market right now, you may want to reconsider. It is very difficult to “time the market” when purchasing a property as there is no way to predict what will happen to interest rates in the future. As a buyer, your best strategy is to work on improving your credit score and shop around with lenders for the best rates. Saving up for a larger down payment will also help to minimize the effect of higher rates. Don’t forget that if mortgage rates do go down in the future, you can always refinance.
If you plan to list your house in the coming months, pricing it correctly will be critical. Buyers may have to lower their budget to keep their monthly payments in line due to increased mortgage rates. They are not likely to pay more than a home’s true market value, so make sure your list price is based on recent comps.
Housing Prices
The average home price in the Miami Valley is $251,297, which is up 44.9% vs 2019 when our average price was $173,373. Year-to-date local home prices have risen an average of 4.9% over last year. This is a big improvement over the double digit increases we have been seeing since 2020.
We get asked about a “pricing bubble” at least once a week. Many think that a sharp drop in housing prices is just around the corner, but the factors at work in today’s market are very different than those during the housing crash in 2008. The primary driver of increased prices in this market is a lack of supply relative to the amount of buyers looking for homes. While there is no pricing crash around the corner, we should continue to see home prices moderate. Year-over-year increases of 3-5% should be the norm going forward.
Housing Inventories
Housing inventories have been dropping since 2019. Year-to-date through the end of August, we have 8.2% less inventory than a year ago and 33.5% less than the same time frame 5 years ago. The good news for those looking to purchase a home in the next few months is that there are a lot fewer buyers in the market. The new school year, higher interest rates and inflationary prices have driven many buyers to the sidelines for the rest of 2023. Fewer buyers mean less competition and better inventory levels going forward. If you are having difficulty finding a home that suits your needs, new construction may be a good option. We have helped 5 clients find a builder and start work on new homes this year. There are builders at many price points in our community. If you think this might be a good option for you give us a call.
Sellers need to keep in mind that higher inventory levels will mean more competition from comparable properties. Ensuring your home is well priced and properly staged will bring more buyers and better offers.
Buyers
The start of the school year always reduces the amount of buyers in the market. This time of year brings price reductions in the market as sellers get more realistic on pricing. Well priced homes in good condition still sell quickly, but we are not seeing many bidding wars or multiple offer situations. While the months of January and February tend to yield the lowest average prices of the year, they also have the lowest inventory levels. The months of October-December give buyers lower average prices than the hectic summer months, but offer more inventory than the early months of the year. If you are thinking of purchasing a home, this is a good time to start your search. If you are considering selling, you will have more buyers and may get a better selling price now than in January or February of 2024.
If you are considering selling or buying, there is still plenty of time in 2023. Just give us a call and we can put together a plan to achieve your housing goals this year.
Fall is right around the corner and there is so much to do! Looking for some ideas on how to enjoy the season? Ohio’s travel and tourism website is a great place to start your search. They have a list of 100 Things To Do in Ohio This Fall. While some of their picks might take some travel time, we’ve included some ideas closer to home below.
There are so many great places to hike around the Miami Valley. Some of our favorite local spots include Twin Creek MetroPark , Cox Arboretum, Englewood MetroPark, Sugarcreek MetroPark, and Bill Yeck Park. The Ohio Department of Natural Resources has developed the DETOUR app which allows you to explore the thousands of miles of hiking trails in our state from your computer or smartphone. Southwest Ohio Parent also put out a good list of trails to tackle in the area and you can see their recommendations here.
Festivals
We are in the midst of festival season and we post a list of things to do each weekend on social media. Hopefully, you have been able to enjoy a few events around the area. If you want to do something in September, you can visit Oktoberfest at the Dayton Art Institute, Germantown Pretzel Fest, Ohio Renaissance Festival, or the Lebanon Apple Festival. For a more complete list, check out Daytonlocal.com for more events.
Fall Foliage & Road Trips
Hocking Hills
This state park is about a 2-hour drive from Dayton and offers something for everyone. Hiking, ziplining, camping, cabin rental, and caves to explore.
Yellow Springs & John Bryan State Park
John Bryan State Park offers hiking, camping, disc golf, paddle boats, and rock climbing. After some time in nature, head into Yellow Springs which features shopping and some excellent dining options in a charming small town setting.
Walking Tours
Looking for a new adventure? Check out Cincinnati’s ArtWorks Mural tour. They offer either group tours or self-guided tours. German Village is another great place to explore on foot. If you want to explore closer to home, Preservation Dayton has 10 self-guided walking tours of local historic neighborhoods including Oregon District, South Park, and St. Anne’s Hill.
Scenic Drives
Want to check out the best places in the state for fall color? Check out Ohio’s Guide to the best fall foliage. Before you go, you might want to keep tabs on the fall color updates from the department of natural resources. If you’d like a more extended trip, check out this scenic drive that highlights 17 stops around the state for you to discover.
It’s easy to see why so many people pick autumn as their favorite season. Do you have a recommendation you’d like to see added to this list? There is so much to see and do. We hope you have a chance to explore something new this fall!
With the hustle of August, we are late getting you the results of the July real estate market for the Dayton area. Sales for the month were down 23.5% which is the sharpest decline vs 2022 that we have seen since January. New listings were down 14.6%, but that is an improvement over the prior three months when inventories dropped between 25.0-26.7% vs last year.
Average sale prices continue to rise vs last year. In July the average home sold for $266,457 which is 6.6% above 2022 and the highest rate increase we have seen since March. Overall for the year, the rates of price increases are lower than the previous 3 years which were in the double digits. Rising interest rates over the past 12 months have significantly affected mortgage payments and the prices that buyers are able to afford.
Looking ahead to the fall market
1. High interest rates will continue to affect affordability
As we write this, interest rates are at a 21 year high. Many experts had been anticipating rates were going to improve as we headed into the 3rd and 4th quarter this year, but now the outlook is not as promising. While forecasts are still showing rate improvements, we may have to wait until 2024 to see them. These higher rates will continue to put pressure on inventory levels as sellers with lower interest rates stay put instead of purchasing a home and taking on loans at higher rates.
Sellers need to be particularly careful when pricing their homes this fall. More buyers are moving to the sidelines waiting for lower rates and those still in the market are able to afford less home than they could a few months ago. With fewer buyers in the market, we do not expect to see as many multiple offer situations as we move through the next couple of months. Sellers need to understand the current market and pay attention to comparable properties when deciding how to price their home. They are better off pricing their home slightly under market value than slightly over it. A more conservative price will generate more interest from buyers and could increase the purchase price above the list price if you do find yourself in a multiple-offer situation.
2. Buyers still in the market may see better pricing.
We will be sending out the August market recap in about two weeks and based on our current observations, we are expecting to see the days to sell increase. Over the past couple of weeks we have also been seeing a lot more price reductions on current listings. As an example, 83 sellers have lowered their listing price within the last 24 hours.
Buyers who are paying cash or who need to move despite the higher interest rates are likely to find better pricing on homes and less competition as we move forward into the fall and winter. It looks like purchasing a home this fall will be less frustrating for buyers and once interest rates drop, those who will be financing a purchase this year will be able to refinance their loans at lower rates.
Are you considering a move in late 2023 or 2024? Let us know. We would love to work with you to put together a plan that will help you achieve your housing goals this year.
Hello! It’s been a while since we have posted a blog article. Between the busy summer real estate season, travel (for both Pat & Karen), and Karen’s kitchen remodel, we have had our hands full. We carved out some time for this post because we think it’s important to update you on the current market.
June market snapshot
If you look at the information above, you will see that sales for the month were down 16.3% vs 2022, but new listings fell almost 26%. Our area, like much of the country, continues to suffer from a shortage of housing. There simply are not enough homes for all of the current buyers. It is still a very good market for sellers.
As you would expect, that lack of inventory pushes the average sales price higher year-over-year. For the month, the average sale price increased to $268,332 which is up 5.3% vs 2022. The good news for buyers is that year-to-date sales prices increased just 4.4%. That is an improvement over 2022 when sales prices were up 11.6%. We are seeing prices begin to stabilize after the large increases over the past few years.
Why are homes taking longer to sell if there are fewer homes?
The answer is higher interest rates vs last year. Buyers are unwilling to overspend on a home when they are dealing with increases in mortgage rates coupled with rising home prices. Sellers who price their homes over the market value struggle to tempt buyers. Many of them are reluctant to take reductions on their overpriced listings, and so their properties sit on the market for long periods of time. It is the stubbornness of these overpriced home sellers causing the increase, it is not a lack of well qualified buyers.
Should I get into the market now or wait a little longer?
Our local housing market is strong. Well-priced homes are selling very quickly, often with multiple offers. We are still in a seller’s market, but buyers have more power this year than they have had in a long while. Interest rates and home prices are stabilizing and we are seeing lots of new housing in our area. If you are considering selling, buying or building a home, please give us a call. This is a good time to get into the market and we would love to put together a plan to meet your housing goals.
Unit sales for May lagged behind last year’s results by 16.4% or 256 units. This was primarily a function of our continued lack of housing inventory. New listings dropped by 549 units or almost 27% for the month vs. 2022 and total listings were down 739 units vs. LY.
It took 59 days on average for a home to sell in May which is down significantly from prior months where that total was 63-74 days. The average sales price for local homes was $259,665 for the month which is essentially flat vs last year. This is a little surprising when looking at the lack of inventory, but is not unexpected as we have seen significant price increases for the past several years. For example, the average price in May 2022 was approximately $35,000 higher than in May 2021.
2 takeaways from the May market
1. Buyers need to act quickly
If you plan to purchase a home this summer, get a pre-approval letter from your lender and make sure that you are checking your portal daily. If you see a home that may work for you, reach out to your agent quickly. If you wait to schedule a showing, the house may go under contract before you can see it. Work with your agent to craft an offer that is appealing to the seller, keeping in mind that price is not the only tool you can use to win the deal.
2. Well-priced homes continue to sell quickly but buyers are cautious on pricing.
The market remains competitive for buyers. Multiple offer situations are still quite common. Our May sellers all received at least 2-3 offers within 48 hours of putting their homes on the market. Likewise, we had to craft offers for our buyers clients knowing that we were in competition with other buyers for the same property.
Many buyers are being more cautious on their offer price and are finding other ways to make their offer more appealing to sellers. We have noticed that appraisal gaps are playing a bigger role in negotiations this year. Our sellers have been more likely to choose a lower offer with an appraisal gap rather than a higher offer price without one for fear that their home may not appraise for the higher offer price. It is important that buyer agents contact the seller’s agent before writing an offer to find out what is important to the seller. Buyer agents who tailor their offer to the seller’s needs will have a leg up in negotiations.
Sellers need to understand the current market and pay attention to comparable properties when deciding how to price their home. They are better off pricing their home slightly under market value than slightly over it. A more conservative price will generate more interest from buyers and could increase the purchase price above the list price if you find yourself in a multiple-offer situation.
Are you considering a move in 2023? Let us know. We would love to work with you to put together a plan that will help you achieve your housing goals this year.
It is still a seller’s market, but higher interest rates have pushed some buyers to the sidelines. Well-priced homes are selling quickly, but many properties are sitting on the market longer than they did a year ago. If you are considering putting your house on the market, these 6 things can help ensure your home sells quickly and encourage better offers from buyers.
Boost Your Home’s Curb Appeal
Most buyers will see your home online first, but you can set the stage for a great showing by wowing them when they pull up to your property. Ensure your lawn is trimmed & mowed. Mulch your planting beds and add flowers for a splash of color. If you have a lot of trees and hedges in your front yard, trim them back so that prospective buyers can get a better look at your home. Trimming those branches away from windows will brighten up your home’s interior. Keep in mind that buyers will be spending several minutes at your entry while their agent unlocks the front door, so remove spider webs from around the area and clean exterior lights. Consider a new front door mat or an updated color for your front door. If your porch, walkway, or driveway is stained, pressure washing can make it look new again.
Declutter
Prior to listing, take time to get rid of anything that you no longer need or do not want to take with you to your next home. Clean out closets, remove small appliances from counters, and purge items from your garage or basement that haven’t been touched since you moved in. You want your spaces to look as large and welcoming as possible. If you have a lot of furniture or things you can’t part with, consider renting a storage unit during the listing period. Decluttering will improve the photos of your home online and will make it easier for buyers to imagine themselves living in your home.
Clean homes get higher offers
A clean house tells the buyer that it has been well-maintained and cared for by the current owners. It puts buyers at ease and encourages them to spend time looking around. Flooring, windows, walls, and trim work should be cleaned. If you have carpets, hire a professional to clean them before listing. Bathrooms and kitchens should sparkle. Make sure to clean the inside & outside of all your appliances – buyers will be opening doors and looking inside. If you have pets, make sure to replace air filters to help remove the smell of them in your home.
Tackle that repair list
Most of us have that list of repairs that we haven’t gotten to yet. Perhaps your kitchen sink has a leak or you didn’t have time for the second coat of paint on your bedroom walls. All of those items should be addressed and repaired before putting your home on the market. Properties that have been well maintained will fetch a higher price. Most buyers will conduct home inspections once the property is under contract. Fixing these items ahead of time should reduce the number of repairs you will have to make prior to closing.
Consider some updates
There is no question that homes with updated spaces sell for much higher prices than those without. That doesn’t mean that you have to renovate everything before you move. Tackle a couple of things that will have the biggest impact. Kitchens & bathrooms sell homes. A fresh coat of paint, a new countertop, or updated lighting, hardware, and fixtures can give these rooms a new look. Are your floors in bad shape? Consider replacing flooring in the rooms that have the most wear and tear. Even investing as little as $1000-$5000 can bring big returns to your bottom line when you sell.
Be Realistic About the Price
Trust your Realtor. They will do a competitive market analysis prior to the listing date to come up with a price for your home. Buyers are much more price-conscious this year than they have been in years past because of higher interest rates. They avoid homes with inflated prices. Pricing your home at or slightly below market value will encourage multiple offers that could net you more at the closing table. Reaching for a price above market value will mean more time on the market and future price reductions.
Want more information on getting your home ready to sell? We have an experienced stager on staff who can offer ideas to make your home appeal to the most buyers possible. We are happy to meet with you to maximize your selling price and help you reach your goals at the closing table.
patbradleyfalkeblog.wordpress.com 